Tuesday, 8 November 2016

What effect will closet Trump voters have on the US Election?

Alex Kusmanoff, RMIT University; Fiona Fidler, University of Melbourne, and Sarah Bekessy, RMIT University

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump recently claimed “phony polling” is suppressing his vote and predicted the outcome of the US election will be “Brexit times five”.

By “Brexit times five”, Trump is referring to the surprising referendum result in favour of Britain leaving the European Union, an outcome that went against the predictions of most polls. Given the unexpected triumph of Britain’s “Leave” campaign, is it possible that Trump could produce a surprise result of even greater proportions?

Many explanations are put forward to account for voting patterns, especially when they don’t match the polls.

Good sampling methodology – that is, how to choose a group of people likely to reflect the characteristics of the broader population – is key to ensuring accurate and useful results. An understanding of likely voter turnout is also important, especially in the US and other countries where voting is voluntary.

But other factors, such as the language and wording used, can also effect the results of any survey, including electoral polls.

One likely factor in the discrepancy between the pre-referendum Brexit polls and the final result was social desirability bias – the human tendency to portray ourselves in the most favourable light. This bias may not necessarily be conscious. It’s common in social surveys, where the need to be seen to be doing “the right thing” can overwhelm honest responses.

For example, it’s socially desirable for people to disagree with the statement “I sometimes feel resentful when I don’t get my own way”, even though it’s likely everybody has felt this way at some time. Self-reporting of alcohol consumption is typically 40-50% lower than actual consumption rates.
In the case of Brexit, the “Leave” campaign became associated with xenophobia and racism. Because this was regarded negatively by mainstream society, it likely resulted in people understating their support for the “Leave” campaign when asked by pollsters.

Social desirability bias is exacerbated by the presence of other people, so it’s more prominent when survey questions are asked directly by an interviewer, either in person or over the phone.

If social desirability was a factor in the inconsistency between the Brexit polls and the final result, we should see a difference between the polls taken by telephone interviews and those conducted online.
Let’s look at the polls from the final week of the Brexit campaign. Out of five telephone polls, none predicted a win for “Leave”. Out of eight online polls, four predicted a win.

This is particularly surprising because one might expect lower polling for the “Leave” vote in online polls, since this method captures younger voters who were (at least publically) more opposed to Brexit. Assuming no other methodological issues were at play, this suggests that social desirability may have been a factor.

Like the “Leave” campaign, Trump’s campaign is associated with the socially negative attributes of xenophobia and racism, as well as sexism and allegations of sexual misconduct. This is likely to cause a social desirability bias with a tendency for people to under report their support for Trump.

Now let’s look at Trump’s “Brexit times five” claim. In both telephone and online polls taken during the last week of the Brexit campaign, the average result was 46.5% for “Remain” and 44.5% for “Leave”. Excluding the undecided voters, this equates to 51% for “Remain” and 49% for “Leave”.
The result of the actual vote was 48% for “Remain” and 52% for “Leave”. On the basis of this simplistic analysis, and with this particular mix of telephone and online polls, we could argue that social desirability bias suppressed the polled support for “Leave” by around 3%.

As of November 1, the US polling aggregation website FiveThirtyEight says the national averages for the popular vote in the US election are 49.2% for Clinton and 44.5% for Trump, a difference of 4.7% in favour of Clinton.

If Trump is able to achieve “Brexit times five” – that is, gain 15% more votes on election day than the polls would suggest – he would indeed be well-placed for victory. But unlike Brexit, this result would need to be repeated in each state and reflected in the Electoral College votes, rather than just a single national vote.

Although important and often present, the effects of social desirability bias are likely to be relatively minor in polls that are properly conducted, and only likely to cause surprise results in a tight race. The degree to which the polling averages may be misled by social desirability bias depends on the mix of methods used to collect the answers – with a greater reliance on telephone polling more likely to capture a greater degree of bias.

So while it’s possible that Trump’s polling is depressed, and while he may win more votes than expected on Election Day, he’s still unlikely to win the Presidency.

The Conversation
Alex Kusmanoff, PhD candidate, Inter-disciplinary Conservation Science and Research Group, RMIT University; Fiona Fidler, Associate professor, University of Melbourne, and Sarah Bekessy, Associate professor, RMIT University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.


jamel eden said...

go to Merry Christmas Donald Trump

Anonymous said...

Checkout my blog Valentines Day Images
to get the latest valentines day wallpapers messages images and quotes. enjoy the special day with your lover.

Anonymous said...

Valentine week list 2017 dates
rose day Valentine week
promise day Valentine week
teddy day Valentine week list
Valentines Day wishes for bf/gf

Anonymous said...

Ah, that is simply called psychometry. Psychometry was found as a science, developed and practiced since the middle of 19th century. Nothing new besides the size of the sample for analysis and techniques that simplify the collection of the data. Simply - great thank to Facebook. Having this big kindergarten to play and toss around opinions, FB become a great and powerful space of manipulation. As years go by, the only 'condom' you have to protect your brain from getting pregnant with the someone-else opinion is EDUCATION. Yours, of course. So, don't sacrifice your freedom of speach, your freedom of opinion and your freedom of action and LEARN with https://breezewriting.com/
, otherwise, how can you be sure that your opinion and your choice is not influenced by precise manipulations of someone else?

Tuan Do said...

Now Trump has won and it seems to me that everybody is watching if he could make a difference.
Anyway, if you are looking for some business management solutions. I recommend you to check out:
phần mềm quản lý đầu tư for project management
phần mềm quản lý công việc for work management
phần mềm quản lý doanh nghiệp
phần mềm quản lý văn bản đi đến for document management
phần mềm quản lý doanh nghiệp
phần mềm quản lý kho hàng for inventory management
Have a nice day!

Christi said...

Most people do not know when is mother’s day? they get information about this day through social media like Facebook, twitter. Send Mother's day quotes 2017 to your mom. And show her how much you love her. While you can send Mother's day quotes, Mother's day wishes 2017 as well.

Alsaeed A Koutb said...

ننف كافة الترميمات التي يحتاجها المنزل فنحن اولي شركات الترميم و اضافة الي خدما جلي البلاط فنحن نقوم بجلي السيراميك و تنظفه
شركة ترميم بالرياض
ترميم منزل قبل وبعد
جلي بلاط
شركة جلي بلاط بالرياض
شركة تنظيف بالقطيف
شركة نظافة بالقطيف

Anonymous said...

Wow, that's what I was searching for, what a stuff! existing here at this blog, thanks admin of this web site.

اخبار سیاسی چین
مهماندار هواپیما ایرانی
مدافع حرم حامد جوانی

Anonymous said...

Have you ever considered writing an e-book or guest authoring on other websites? I have a blog based on the same subjects you discuss and would love to have you share some stories/information. I know my readers would appreciate your work. If you're even remotely interested, feel free to send me an email.

هواپیمایی تابان
اخبار خودرويي
فوتبال ساحلی

Anonymous said...

Its like you learn my mind! You appear to know so much about this, like you wrote the guide in it or something. I believe that you simply can do with some % to power the message house a bit, but instead of that, that is fantastic blog. An excellent read. I will definitely be back.

اخبارجالب ایران
اخبار سینمای ترکیه
اخبار ایران گویا نیوز

Anonymous said...

Hey! Someone in my Myspace group shared this website with us so I came to give it a look. I'm definitely loving the information. I'm book-marking and will be tweeting this to my followers! Wonderful blog and amazing design and style.
اخبار حوادث زاهدان
عطر و ادکلن زنانه معروف
طراحی سایت آماده کرج

Anonymous said...

I feel that is among the most important info for me. And i am glad reading your article. But want to statement on some basic things, The web site style is perfect, the articles is truly great : D. Good task, cheers

فتوشاپ برای مک
سایت مذهبی اهل سنت
اخبار جاده ها امروز

Anonymous said...

An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a colleague who has been conducting a little homework on this. And he in fact bought me lunch due to the fact that I discovered it for him... lol. So let me reword this.... Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending the time to talk about this topic here on your blog.
اخبار ورزش تهران
آموزش php با dreamweaver
بازی رایانه ای جدید

Anonymous said...

Hey! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this website? I'm getting fed up of Wordpress because I've had issues with hackers and I'm looking at alternatives for another platform. I would be fantastic if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

اخبار جذاب دنیا
اخبار ایران خودرو
ثبت رایگان آگهی استخدام
مطالب خواندنی با عکس
مطالب خواندنی با عکس

Anonymous said...

Pretty nice post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I have truly enjoyed browsing your blog posts. After all I'll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you write again soon! 
مقاله جدید مدیریت
عکس هنری دخترانه
استفاده همزمان از اسپیکر و هدفون
تاکسی فرودگاه امام
کانال تلگرام خفن

Anonymous said...

Hey! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a collection of volunteers and starting a new project in a community in the same niche. Your blog provided us valuable information to work on. You have done a wonderful job!

کرج گرد
محیط زیست استان ها
تصاویر جالب
شهر خبر
مطالب خواندنی با عکس

Anonymous said...

Attractive section of content. I just stumbled upon your website and in accession capital to claim that I acquire in fact enjoyed account your weblog posts. Any way I will be subscribing in your augment and even I success you get right of entry to consistently rapidly.
ایستگاه اول
فیلم بازان
خبر جست

Anonymous said...

I do believe all the ideas you have introduced on your post. They're really convincing and can definitely work. Still, the posts are too quick for starters. Could you please lengthen them a bit from next time? Thanks for the post.

رپرتاژ آگهی روزنامه خراسان
دانلود موزیک ویدیو جدید
دانلود لوگوی پرسپولیس
مجله ادبی عقربه
خبرهای خفن روز
اخبار فناوری اطلاعات ایتنا

Anonymous said...

Everything is very open with a clear explanation of the issues. It was definitely informative. Your website is extremely helpful. Thanks for sharing!
اخبار جذاب و جالب
دانلود موزیک ویدیو جدید
دانلود نرم افزار
دانلود فیلم گرافیگی
مطالب خواندنی با عکس

Anonymous said...

This piece of writing provides clear idea designed for the new users of blogging, that genuinely how to do blogging and site-building.

دانلود موزیک ویدیو جدید
مجله موبایل فارسی
اخبار جذاب دنیا
اخبار جذاب دنیا
اخبار جذاب دنیا
اخبار جذاب دنیا

Anonymous said...

Hmm it looks like your blog ate my first comment (it was super long) so I guess I'll just sum it up what I wrote and say, I'm thoroughly enjoying your blog. I as well am an aspiring blog blogger but I'm still new to the whole thing. Do you have any points for inexperienced blog writers? I'd certainly appreciate it.

Nagendra Reddy said...

Trump won the president election but reforms in health care sector in waiting till now. MaxCure Hospitals in Hyderabad is accepting international patients to cure many diseases. Expecting good reforms in american health care system.

Luarg Luarg said...

Chaussures Palladium Baggy/
Salomon Speedcross 4
Femmes Salomon Speedcross 3
Hommes Salomon S-LAB Sense 4

فني ستلايت said...

فني ستلايت الكويت
افضل فني ستلايت لتركيب واصلاح الستلايت بالكويت

shevie green said...

I am very pleased that I stumbled across this in my search for something relating to this sites.
I have also bookmarked you for checking out new posts



kumala sari said...

I must say you had done a tremendous job,I appreciate all your efforts.
Thanks alot for your writings.
Waiting for a new 1...Please visit our wonderful and valuable website-
For More Details Visit are Official Websites :

sheila waltz said...

Salam Jp
buat yang belum bergabung tunggu apa lagi
Togelhok88 Bandar judi online togel terpercaya, Tempat betting aman

PIN BBM : D8877D3C
WA : 0812227543466
> 4D = 69%
> 3D = 60%
> 2D = 29%
> Bonus Referal 1%
> Cash Back 5% UP 20% ( KHUSUS LIVEGAME )
> Bonus kebalikan 2D X2


Mahmoud Salah Mizar Sayed Ahmed said...

افضل شركة
نقل عفش
في الكويت

Sofiajones said...

18000 vacant position of Guards, ALP, ASM, Lineman, key man and other personnel for mending works. If you're looking forward to RRB Recruitment for years then this opportunity is merely for you. Start your prep early to split the RRB Recruitment 2018 exam. Here, I will share everything related to the notification which is likely to be released by the Railway Recruitment Mother board.
IBPS SO Recruitment 2017-2018 eligibility criteria
IBPS PO Syllabus 2018 (Probationary Officer)

sanjay said...

A single line Quote has more information.

Anonymous said...

Great this article is very helpful. Thank you for the valuable information.
Visit For More

Teresa Hamilton said...

Thank you for sharing the post. Everything about him is unpredictable.
idol net worth

blog-admin said...

Very Nice Post on voting
Pakistan General Elections 2018 is going to be held on 25th July 2018

service kw said...

نقل عفش

نقل عفش منازلك

تغليف وتعبئة الاثاث

celana vakoou said...

alat bantu sex wanita penis maju mundur
alat bantu sex wanita penis getar
alat bantu sex wanita penis manual
alat bantu sex wanita penis kelabang
alat bantu sex wanita penis ikat pinggang
alat bantu sex wanita penis tempel jumbo
alat bantu sex wanita penis tempel
viberator kapsul getar
viberator fairy
alat pembesar payudara

Adya Razan said...

Nice post bolalova

color switch said...

Great article and interesting, thank you for sharing.

Webroot.com/safe said...

Webroot Safe is a protection software solution that communicates with the cloud avoiding the hassle to manage the signature updates to deploy. Webroot Antivirus Download and Install for office setup visit www.office.com/myaccount

Alex daina said...

The bank at that point stores an electronic duplicate of the check, called a substitute check, in the database while the real check is stamped electronically, showing that it has been gotten the money for. Once the check is prepared and confirmed, its money esteem is then stored to your ledger. Check Cashing

Alex daina said...

That is simple enough to see yet what does it cover? About each ticket merchant site charges expenses, and those that don't, include the expense into the cost of the ticket, this is a reality. Those site where they guarantee "No Fee Tickets", are basically concealing the charges. An astute buyer will shop diverse sites for similar tickets, locate the last expense including administration charges and purchase the lower generally speaking cost tickets. Many find that those destinations where they guarantee "NO Fees" are higher or break even with in cost to those charging expenses. nfl tickets no fees

Sunil Sharma said...

Want to Disable Norton Pop-Up? Norton.Com/Setup

Aman Singh said...

Railway Recruitment Board is done with the Computer Based test for the Group D Recruitment that was announced earlier this year. The candidates were appearing for the CBT Examination for RRB Group D Recruitment from 17th September 2018 to 17th December 2018. The candidates can check their RRB Group D Result 2018 -19 from the official website. RRB Group D Result Expected Date is in the month of February or March 2019. Soon, the confirmed dates will be released.

Unknown said...

Choose health care in world largest democratic country India. Here are some health services and doctors in India,

LandMark Hospitals in Kukatpally,Hyderabad
Dr. Sudharshan Reddy
Dr. G. Bhavya Gynecologist in Kukatpally
Dr. Madhu Vasi Reddy General Surgeon in Hyderabad
Dr. Lakshmi Kanth
Dr. Arif Ahmod Farooqe
Urologist in Kukatpally
Knee replacement surgeon in Hyderabad
Vascular surgeon in Hyderabad
Urology hospital in Kukatpally

sohbet said...

chatteyim , chatteyim , chatteyim , chatteyim , chatteyim
chatteyim , chatteyim , chatteyim , chatteyim , chatteyim

Unknown said...

chirurgie esthetique Tunisie

John Newman said...

good luck guys.
دانلود آهنگ جدید
دانلود آهنگ جدید

Isabella said...

Today, things are very different in the online ticketing world and the competition is tremendous. Today, you don't have to make a phone call to book tickets. You just have to surf the net, visit the websites that sell tickets and book them online in just a few clicks of the mouse.

amit said...

Nice blog ..Post Thank you for sharing such a valuable information .To know more about ibps po syllabus please visit:

ibps po syllabus
ibps po syllabus 2018
ibps po syllabus 2019

Admin said...

Writing articles that are very interesting and very neat, at first I did not understand how to write good articles, after I saw your website I began to learn and understand how to write the right articles. Thank you for giving a very good example of writing, I will often come to your website to learn how to write like the one on your website.

bola tangkas hkb

Admin said...

Writing articles that are very interesting and very neat, at first I did not understand how to write good articles, after I saw your website I began to learn and understand how to write the right articles. Thank you for giving a very good example of writing, I will often come to your website to learn how to write like the one on your website.

bandar togel terpercaya

poker online said...

Agen Poker
Poker Online
Poker Online Uang Asli
Poker Online Terpercaya
QQ Poker
Judi Poker Online

دانلود اهنگ said...

Thanks for your very good and useful site
Good content was on your site
دانلود اهنگ

idn poker said...

Pokerbeken.net situs agen judi game poker online Indonesia yang terpercaya dan terbaik. Pokerbeken adalah situs agen judi poker online uang asli terpercaya yang menyediakan permainan / game : Game poker online, domino qq / qiu qiu, capsa susun, ceme keliling, bandar ceme, dominobet, samgong dan casino war dalam 1 akun.

Pokerbeken akan selalu memberikan pelayanan yang terbaik dan maksimal kepada setiap member setianya. Setiap anggota wajib mematuhi peraturan yang berlaku di Pokerbeken demi ketertiban bersama. Di dalam game poker online ini akan terdapat bonus (jackpot) bagi pemain yang beruntung.

Untuk dapat memainkan semua permainan yang ada di situs judi poker terpercaya Pokerbeken, setiap pemain diwajibkan terlebih dahulu mendaftar di situs judi poker online terpercaya ini.

Daftar di Pokerbeken harus menggunakan data yang lengkap dan benar / valid. Keamanan data pribadi member terjamin di website poker online ini!

Sebagai pemain setia di Pokerbeken, Anda juga berhak untuk mendapatkan bonus referral 10% seumur hidup (selama referral Anda bermain) dari turn over (TO) permainan orang yang Anda ajak.

Caranya yaitu dengan mendaftarkan teman / orang yang diajak menggunakan link referral Anda, selengkapnya bisa Anda baca disini https://www.pokerbeken.net/referral.php

Selain keunggulan-keunggulan diatas, alasan Anda harus bermain bersama situs judi poker online terpercaya Pokerbeken adalah : Minimal deposit yang murah yaitu Rp.10.000, transaksi yang cepat dan mudah, pelayanan 24 jam yang ramah dan profesional.

Oleh karena itu segera daftarkan diri Anda bersama situs agen judi poker online, domino qiu qiu dan capsa susun online terpercaya Pokerbeken dan ajak rekan-rekan Anda!

Terima kasih sudah memilih situs judi poker terpercaya Pokerbeen sebagai tempat bermain judi kartu Anda. Salam.

Unknown said...

Yes Trump was well managed elections there is no argument in this. I am from India and I encourage to visit best places. The Ahobilam is one of best place, the accommodation providing here was very nice and unique.

Unknown said...

Trump lead campaigns well with strong local statement is America first, it worked well. I am running ambulance services in Hyderabad with humanity touch.

عبده العمراوى said...

شركة مكافحة الثعابين والعقارب بالخفجى
شركة تنظيف بالجبيل

hamed221 said...